Consumer Intelligence

Churn & Repeat Purchase

Predicts which consumers, distributors and retailers are about to stop buying — and what it takes to keep them.

1What is happening?

7,817 consumers overdue vs their own repurchase cycle; repeat rate 65%.

2Why?

Recency vs cycle is the top driver; West Java stock-outs and channel shift add to it.

3What happens next?

6,331 active consumers with churn probability > 60% Predicted

4What should we do?

Target top consumers by CLV × churn with a cycle-timed reminder + bundle.

5If we act?

IDR 362M value retained for 3,000 consumers Estimated

Likely to churn (90 d)

AI predicted

6,331

P(churn) > 60%, active

Value at risk

AI predicted

IDR 2.3B

Σ CLV × churn probability

Avg churn probability

AI predicted

31.1%

All consumers

Repeat purchase probability

AI predicted

70.4%

Next cycle, all consumers

Distributors at risk

9 of 30

Churn risk > 10%

Inactive / slowing outlets

> 35 d since last order, of 520

Featured prediction

Consumer C-018342 (Rina W.) is overdue

Bandung · Young parents · Lumi Baby buyer

Example profileHigh

Consumer C-018342 (Rina W.) has not repurchased for 62 days while typical repurchase cycle is 35 daysPersonalised reminder + bundle recommendation

Churn probability

64%

Predicted

CLV (3-year)

IDR 2M

Predicted

Avg basket

IDR 87K

9 orders / yr

Channel

MT → MP

Marketplace

Drivers for this consumer

Days overdue vs repurchase cycle+77% (62 vs 35 d)

56%

Channel shiftMT → MP

21%

Promo sensitivity67% of items on promo

16%

Purchase frequency trend9 vs 10 expected orders

Why the AI predicts this

80%

64%probability of no purchase in 90 daysPredicted

Key drivers

Days overdue vs cycle+77%

48%

Frequency decline−2 orders

27%

Out-of-stock exposureWest Java

25%

Supporting data

Last purchase62 days agoActual

Typical repurchase cycle35 daysActual

Share of items bought on promo67%Actual

Next best productBaby Lotion 200ml (68% affinity)Predicted

Historical comparison: Win-back journeys recovered 23% of similar consumers in Q2 2026.

Recommended action

Send a personalised reminder via marketplace chat within 48 hours with a Baby Shampoo + Baby Lotion bundle voucher (12%).

Churn probability distribution

Consumers by predicted 90-day churn probability

Predicted

Bimodal: a healthy core below 20% and a lapsing tail above 60%.

Churn drivers

Global feature importance · Churn Prediction v2.6 (AUC 0.87)

Recency ratio (days since purchase ÷ own cycle)34%

34%

Frequency trend (last 3 vs prior 3 orders)21%

21%

Out-of-stock exposure (home-region availability)15%

15%

Promo dependence12%

12%

Channel shift (offline → online)10%

10%

Basket value decline8%

Repeat purchase probability

Average probability of buying again within next cycle

Predicted

New91.8%

Growing88.3%

Loyal92.9%

High Value91.8%

Price Sensitive86.6%

At Risk30.4%

Dormant12.7%

At-risk consumers

Ranked by CLV × churn probability · top 2,000 shown

Retention scenario

What if we run the win-back journey?

Estimated

Consumers targeted3,000

Value at risk

IDR 1.6B

Targeted group

Consumers saved

490

Expected

Retained revenue (3y)

IDR 362M

Estimated

Retained revenue (12m)

IDR 451M

Estimated

Campaign cost

IDR 54M

IDR 18K per consumer

Return

6.7×

Retained 3y value / cost

Assumes the historical 23% win-back rate (Q2 2026). Diminishing returns: each extra 500 consumers adds less value because the list is ranked by CLV × churn.

Model: Churn Prediction v2.6 · consumer counts 52.5K · scored 28 Sep 2026 05:00